24 September 2024
Kitty Greenwood, Senior Sustainability & Energy Consultant
In September 2024, Poland was among several countries in Central and Eastern Europe severely affected by devastating floods. Triggered by Storm Boris, this natural disaster exposed the region’s increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, driven by the escalating climate crisis. The floods, which inundated vast areas, have caused significant damage to real estate, infrastructure, and raised critical concerns about the need for more robust adaptation strategies to mitigate future risks.
The Role of Climate Change
The floods in Poland and other parts of Central Europe can be traced to a unique and dangerous confluence of meteorological factors. Cold air from the north has mixed with moisture drawn up by unusually warm waters in the Mediterranean and the Black Sea. The situation was exacerbated by a “blocked” weather pattern, where low pressure systems became trapped between high-pressure areas, allowing the storm to remain stationary and continue dumping rain over the same regions. Storm Boris unleashed torrential rains across the region, with over five times the average rainfall for September falling within just five days.
Only last week, one-third of Polish rivers were in a drought state following a summer of very high temperatures across the region. This extreme weather pattern reflects the growing impact of climate change on European weather systems. According to the World Weather Attribution Network, warming global temperatures have increased both the likelihood and intensity of extreme weather events like these floods. Heatwaves, followed by heavy downpours, are becoming more common.
Economic Damage to Real Estate and Infrastructure
The floods in Poland caused widespread devastation to infrastructure and property. Neighbourhoods were submerged, bridges collapsed, and entire towns became inaccessible. Finance Minister Andrzej Domanski reported that approximately 2 billion złotys (€450 million) had been allocated to address the immediate impacts of the disaster, but the total cost of repairs could reach into the billions of euros. Real estate, particularly in flood-prone regions, faced severe losses, with many homes and businesses suffering irreparable damage.
The broader economic implications are daunting. Whilst the regions affected in Poland are not typically associated with large industry, or warehousing, early estimates suggest that the damage to property and infrastructure from the 2024 floods could equate to between 0.3% and 0.7% of Poland’s GDP, or PLN 11 to 25 billion. While short-term financial aid from the EU’s Solidarity Fund and Cohesion Funds will help address immediate reconstruction, more comprehensive strategies are required to build resilience against future climate risks. Previous natural disasters in Europe in 2021 and 2022 cost over €50 billion annually, a sharp rise from €8 billion annually in the 1980s. This highlights how the financial toll of climate-induced disasters is accelerating at a dangerous pace.
The Need for Adaptation Solutions
As climate change continues to intensify the frequency of floods and other extreme weather events in Europe, there is an urgent need for governments to invest in long-term adaptation solutions. Polish economist Slawomir Dudek has highlighted the need for a shift in infrastructure planning, calling for flood prevention and mitigation strategies to be integrated into future development.
While reconstruction efforts will have positive economic multiplier effects, contributing to GDP growth in the coming years, the focus must now be on forward-looking infrastructure investments that prioritize climate resilience. Building flood defences, restoring wetlands, and improving drainage systems can mitigate the impact of heavy rainfall and reduce future damage to real estate and infrastructure. Sustainable urban drainage systems (SuDs) including swales, permeable paving, attenuation tanks and increased vegetation are key strategies for critical sites. Structural measures including elevated designs, raising technical and electrical equipment and important inventory above the estimated flood-level, and implementation of waterproofing details will increase resilience of assets. Moreover, stricter regulations on land use in flood-prone areas will help prevent further real estate losses in vulnerable regions.
Conclusion
The floods in Poland and across Europe serve as a stark reminder of the growing dangers posed by climate change. As storms intensify and become more frequent, the damage to real estate, infrastructure, and national economies will continue to mount unless urgent action is taken. For Poland and the rest of Europe, the path forward lies in investing in climate-resilient infrastructure and adopting adaptive strategies to mitigate the risks posed by a warming planet. The cost of inaction is simply too great, with the potential to dwarf the already staggering economic losses from these recent floods.